The most popular national development and Reform C

2022-08-05
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The national development and Reform Commission said that the refined oil pricing mechanism should be changed. "The oil price management measures announced in May 2009 are only for trial implementation, which in itself shows that the measures are not perfect. After more than a year of trial operation, we have also found many problems, and there is indeed room for further adjustment in the specific operation of the refined oil pricing mechanism." This paragraph from an official of the national development and Reform Commission has been widely circulated in the industry recently. It is known that this is the third time that the national development and Reform Commission has released the "wind" of adjusting the oil price mechanism. However, it is worth noting that although rumors have been around for a long time, "boots" have not fallen yet

Criticism: the reference object is too vague

according to the measures for the administration of oil prices (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the measures) issued in may2009, when the moving average price of crude oil in the three places in the international market has changed by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission can adjust the prices of gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and other refined oil products accordingly

however, the words "22 working days" and "4% change range" have been widely criticized by industry insiders - they are too vague. "It is not clear whether the two figures will go up or not!" Yaodaming, Minister of oil products Department of Guangdong oil and gas chamber of Commerce, jokingly said, "who can guess when the NDRC will adjust prices

"the price adjustment formula of the national development and Reform Commission refers to the 'international oil price in drum shape after tightening' which is a state-level confidential concept. We only know from an external telegram that Brent/Dubai/Xinta crude oil is used as the change rate price parameter." Yaodaming repeatedly explained: "sometimes, we find that the NDRC uses the 22 day average value (M22) of the international oil price benchmark WTI (West Texas light crude oil futures on the New York commercial futures exchange) to calculate; sometimes, it is the Brent oil price that makes people surprised."

Yangcheng Evening News found that after the introduction of the measures, the oil price was adjusted three times on June 1, June 30 and July 28, 2009, which seemed to follow the "22 day" game rule. However, the next adjustment was on September 1 and November 9, 2009, and then on April 14, 2010 and June 1, 2010, six months later

"if it is still valid for 22 days, I think it will be a 'price adjustment window' around September 1," said Yao Daming with a smile. He was not sure whether this window was a 'window', "I can only say that according to the measures, I do not think this window will be adjusted"

suggestion: trigger price adjustment is more feasible

in fact, in the days when the domestic oil price has not changed, it is not that the international oil price has not met the conditions for adjustment proposed by the national development and Reform Commission

for example, at the end of October, November 3 and November 5 last year, there were three "price adjustment windows" successively. Each time, many car owners refuelled in advance, but they were finally confirmed to be rumors; At the end of July this year, the two conditions for lowering the price of refined oil were once met, and public opinion also prompted that the window for price adjustment has now appeared. However, the national development and Reform Commission not only did not adjust the price of refined oil, but also made comments that did not meet the conditions for price adjustment

the former has created the "three birds with one stone" of the oil giant: raising the wholesale price, clearing the inventory and earning the price difference; The latter, the rebound space accumulated greatly, offset the space for price reduction. As a result, the insiders have questioned that the occurrence of "no adjustment" may prove that the time setting page mechanism in the second interface of refined oil pricing has "existed in name only"

"I have always suggested 'trigger' adjustments." Yaodaming pointed out that "the 'trigger price adjustment' is more feasible than the current 'price adjustment on time'. When the international oil price reaches a certain increase or a certain decrease, the adjustment of the oil price will provide relatively less high-precision artificial predictability and reduce the opportunity for intermediate mobile traders to 'hoard oil' from it." Yaodaming stressed: "the 'trigger' price adjustment can gradually narrow the adjustment threshold, and finally reach the goal of fully connecting with the international market and increasing investment attraction."

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